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The Heart Failure Society of America’s 2026 HF STATS report estimates that 7.7 million U.S. adults have heart failure and projects that number will rise to 11.4 million by 2050. It also reports rising age-adjusted mortality and low use of four recommended therapies among patients with reduced ejection fraction.
The Heart Failure Society of America’s 2026 HF STATS report projects that the number of U.S. adults living with heart failure will grow from an estimated 7.7 million now to 11.4 million by 2050. The report also finds that age-adjusted heart failure mortality rose about 37% from 2010 to 2023, while use of recommended medicines remains low among patients with reduced ejection fraction, a concern also reflected in reports on the future of heart failure treatment.
The report estimates that 3% of U.S. adults currently have heart failure. It projects prevalence will rise to 3.2%, or 8.7 million people, by 2030; 3.6%, or 10.3 million, by 2040; and 3.8%, or 11.4 million, by 2050. The authors attribute the expected increase in part to an aging population and rising rates of obesity, hypertension and other cardiometabolic risk factors, alongside concerns about heart failure risk.
Mortality trends add to the concern. Age-adjusted heart failure mortality increased approximately 37% between 2010 and 2023, reversing more than a decade of earlier progress, according to the report authors. Separately, unadjusted mortality rates from 2001 to 2020 more than doubled among adults ages 25 to 44, from 0.6 to 1.4 deaths per 100,000, and nearly doubled among those ages 45 to 64, from 6.4 to 12.5 per 100,000.
The report also identifies a gap between established treatment recommendations and real-world care. Among more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, only 18% reportedly received all four recommended medication classes: beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists and SGLT2 inhibitors. The report describes these guideline-directed therapies as underused despite their benefits and comparatively low costs.
Rising Burden Meets Treatment Gaps
The projections point to a larger demand for prevention, diagnosis and long-term heart failure care over coming decades. The mortality increase is a separate warning in the report: progress in reducing deaths has not continued, even as treatment options have advanced.
The figures also highlight opportunities to improve care. The authors and accompanying editorials argue that wider use of recommended medication, earlier attention to risk factors and support for patients to remain on treatment could help address the gap. The report does not establish that any one intervention will reverse national trends, but it frames improved delivery of proven care as an actionable priority.
For younger adults, the rising mortality figures matter even though heart failure remains less common at younger ages. The report says hospitalization rates are declining among adults 65 and older but rising among younger adults, reinforcing calls for earlier screening and risk-factor management.
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How the Report Tracks Heart Failure
The HF STATS report is the Heart Failure Society of America’s annual review of heart failure prevalence, outcomes and care patterns in the United States. This edition was published in the Journal of Cardiac Failure. Its estimates and projections describe population-level trends; they are not forecasts of an individual person’s risk.
Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction is the group discussed in the treatment-use figures. The four medication classes listed in the report are commonly referred to as the four pillars of guideline-directed medical therapy. In an accompanying editorial, Yale School of Medicine physicians Thiru Chinnadurai and Tariq Ahmad called for practical measures to help clinicians start, adjust and sustain treatment, including electronic health record decision support and multidisciplinary programs.
The report authors also flag racial and geographic disparities in care and a shrinking pipeline of advanced heart failure specialists as issues for the field. It does not provide enough detail in the supplied findings to quantify each disparity or the size of the specialist shortfall.
“HF STATS 2026 reports a condition at a critical inflection point: rising mortality, younger age at onset, an expanding at-risk population, and widening gaps between evidence and practice.”
— HF STATS 2026 authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski
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Limits of the Projections and Data
The prevalence figures are estimates and projections, not counts of future diagnoses. The supplied report summary does not specify all modeling assumptions or explain how changes in population health, screening, treatment or age structure could alter the estimates.
The figures also cover different measures and periods: age-adjusted mortality is reported for 2010 to 2023, while the age-specific unadjusted rates cover 2001 to 2020. The report summary does not establish why mortality rose or quantify how much might be changed by wider treatment use. It also does not detail the size of racial or geographic care gaps or the specialist workforce decline.
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Turning Recommendations Into Care
The report’s authors call for improved prevention, earlier recognition and wider use of proven therapies. The accompanying editorials point to risk-factor screening in early adulthood, better identification of people at elevated risk, and systems that help clinicians start and maintain recommended medicines.
Suggested implementation steps include electronic health record decision support, multidisciplinary medication programs and simpler regimens, according to Chinnadurai and Ahmad. The supplied material does not identify a specific policy deadline or a scheduled follow-up milestone; the next test will be whether health systems, clinicians and policymakers act on the recommendations and whether later data show a change in treatment and outcome trends.
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Key Questions
How many U.S. adults are estimated to have heart failure?
The HF STATS 2026 report estimates 7.7 million adults, or 3% of U.S. adults, currently have heart failure.
How many cases does the report project by 2050?
The report projects prevalence will reach 11.4 million adults, or 3.8%, by 2050. This is a population estimate, not a prediction for any individual.
What does the report say about heart failure deaths?
It reports that age-adjusted heart failure mortality rose by about 37% from 2010 to 2023. It also reports more than doubled unadjusted mortality rates among adults ages 25 to 44 from 2001 to 2020.
Are recommended heart failure medicines widely used?
Not all four recommended medication classes are used together by most patients in the data cited. The report says 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction received all four classes.
What actions do the report and editorials recommend?
They call for stronger risk-factor prevention and earlier recognition, along with systems that help clinicians start, adjust and continue recommended therapy. Suggested tools include electronic health record support and multidisciplinary care programs.
Source: rss
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